The Silver Lining in Apple’s Very Bad iPhone News

Apple on Wednesday warned investors that its revenue for the last three months of 2018 would not live up to previous estimates, or even come particularly close. The main culprit appears to be China, where the trade war and a broader economic slowdown contributed to plummeting iPhone sales. But CEO Tim Cook’s letter to investors pointed to a secondary thread as well, one that Apple customers, environmentalists, and even the company itself should view not as a liability but an asset: People are holding onto their iPhones longer.

That’s not just in China. Cook noted that iPhone upgrades were “not as strong as we thought they would be” in developed markets as well, citing “macroeconomic conditions,” a shift in how carriers price smartphones, a strong US dollar, and temporarily discounted battery replacements. He neglected to mention the simple fact that an iPhone can perform capably for years—and consumers are finally getting wise.

As recently as 2015, smartphone users on average upgraded their phone roughly every 24 months, says Cliff Maldonado, founder of BayStreet Research, which tracks the mobile industry. As of the fourth quarter of last year, that had jumped to at least 35 months. “You’re looking at people holding onto their devices an extra year,” Maldonado says. “It’s been considerable.”

A few factors contribute to the trend, chief among them the shift from buying phones on a two-year contract—heavily subsidized by the carriers—to installment plans in which the customer pays full freight. T-Mobile introduced the practice in the US in 2014, and by 2015 it had become the norm. The full effects, though, have only kicked in more recently. People still generally pay for their smartphone over two years; once they’re paid off, though, their monthly bill suddenly drops by, say, $25.

The shift has also caused a sharp drop-off in carrier incentives. They turn out not to be worth it. “They’re actually encouraging that dynamic of holding your smartphone longer. It’s in their best interest,” Maldonado says. “It actually costs them to get you into a new phone, to do those promotions, to run the transaction and put it on their books and finance it.”

Bottom line: If your service is reliable and your iPhone still works fine, why go through the hassle?

“There’s not as many subsidies as there used to be from a carrier point of view,” Cook told CNBC Wednesday. “And where that didn’t all happen yesterday, if you’ve been out of the market for two or three years and you come back, it looks like that to you.”

Meanwhile, older iPhones work better, for longer, thanks to Apple itself. When Apple vice president Craig Federighi introduced iOS 12 in June at Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference, he emphasized how much it improved the performance of older devices. Among the numbers he cited: The 2014 iPhone 6 Plus opens apps 40 percent faster with iOS 12 than it had with iOS 11, and its keyboard appears up to 50 percent faster than before. And while Apple’s battery scandal of a year ago was a black mark for the company, it at least reminded Apple owners that they didn’t necessarily need a new iPhone. Eligible iPhone owners found that a $29 battery replacement—it normally costs $79—made their iPhone 6 feel something close to new.

“There definitely has been a major shift in customer perception, after all the controversy,” says Kyle Wiens, founder of online repair community iFixit. “What it really did more than anything else was remind you that the battery on your phone really can be replaced. Apple successfully brainwashing the public into thinking the battery was something they never needed to think about led people to prematurely buy these devices.”

Combine all of that with the fact that new model iPhones—and Android phones for that matter—have lacked a killer feature, much less one that would inspire someone to spend $1,000 or more if they didn’t absolutely have to. “Phones used to be toys, and shiny objects,” Maldonado says. “Now they’re utilities. You’ve got to have it, and the joy of getting a new one is pretty minor. Facebook and email looks the same; the camera’s still great.”

In the near term, these dynamics aren’t ideal for Apple; its stock dropped more than 7 percent in after-hours trading following Wednesday’s news. But it’s terrific news for consumers, who have apparently realized that a smartphone does not have a two-year expiration date. That saves money in the long run. And pulling the throttle back on iPhone sales may turn out to be equally welcome news for the planet.

According to Apple’s most recent sustainability report, the manufacture of each Apple device generates on average 90 pounds of carbon emissions. Wiens suggests that the creation of each iPhone requires hundreds of pounds of raw materials.

Manufacturing electronics is environmentally intense, Wiens says. “We can’t live in a world where we’re making 3 billion new smartphones a year. We don’t have the resources for it. We have to reduce how many overall devices we’re making. There are lots of ways to do it, but it gets down to demand, and how many we’re buying. That’s not what Apple wants, but it’s what the environment needs.”

Which raises a question: Why does Apple bother extending the lives of older iPhones? The altruistic answer comes from Lisa Jackson, who oversees the company’s environmental efforts.

“We also make sure to design and build durable products that last as long as possible,” Jackson said at Apple’s September hardware event. “Because they last longer, you can keep using them. And keeping using them is the best thing for the planet.”

Given a long enough horizon, Apple may see a financial benefit from less frequent upgrades as well. An iPhone that lasts longer keeps customers in the iOS ecosystem longer. That becomes even more important as the company places greater emphasis not on hardware but on services like Apple Music. It also offers an important point of differentiation from Android, whose fragmented ecosystem means even flagship devices rarely continue to be fully supported beyond two years.

“In reality, the big picture is still very good for Apple,” Maldonado says. Compared with Android, “Apple’s in a better spot, because the phones last longer.”

That’s cold comfort today and doesn’t help a whit with China. But news that people are holding onto their iPhones longer should be taken for what it really is: A sign of progress and a win for everyone. Even Apple.


More Great WIRED Stories

Investing in Employees Adds No Value to Your Company–Technically. 7 Strategies to Make Sure it Pays Off

It’s never been more apparent that dollars invested in the development of employees and a positive company culture pay off big for companies, large and small. Indeed, smart entrepreneurs know that engaged employees are their company’s most important asset. Yet, human capital is not represented on the balance sheet. In fact, employees aren’t technically assets at all. Rather, dollars expended for salaries, benefits, employee development, etc. are simply considered a necessary expense.

“Traditional methods of accounting don’t appreciate (pun intended) expenditures on our workforce as necessary contributions to creating and sustaining value in our businesses,” says Laura Queen, Founder and CEO of the human capital advisory firm, 29Bison. A ridiculous reality, given today’s evidence of the impact of an ongoing investment in a company’s workforce. Actions such as professional and personal development, retaining and promoting talent, improving the employees’ work experience, and fostering greater levels of trust and transparency can all be linked to tangible economic impacts.

Leaders are calling for a change to recognize the return on investment in human capital.  Blackrock CEO, Larry Fink, took a strong position in his 2018 Letter to CEO’sto champion the idea that people and profits go hand-in-hand. No doubt, a growing number of today’s leaders agree with Fink’s stance.

“Our financial reporting and traditional economic calculus need to catch up to this mindset,” says Queen. As such, she is taking a rather creative step to generate more awareness around the topic. Leading a collaborative effort beginning in the Philadelphia area, Queen has brought together a diverse group of professionals to bring these ideas and financial formulas to life. Experts in the areas of human capital, finance, and valuation, have partnered with business-minded artists to produce a unique event in form of a live play. The play, inspired by author Dave Bookbinder’s The New ROI: Return on Individuals, demonstrates that the key to generating substantial and sustainable increases in the value of your business lies in the intangible assets. In other words, the human capital that is not even reflected on your balance sheet. 

Even if you can’t attend the play, you can benefit from a well-plotted plan. “Investment in your people pays off for your bottom-line,” says Queen. “In an economy where finding talent is becoming more difficult by the day, paying attention to increasing organizational value through your employees is imperative.”

Whether or not your accountant struggles with where to put this asset on your financial reporting, Queen offers these suggestions to begin this shift in your company. It’s certain to be reflected on the bottom-line.

1. Create metrics.

Establish, measure, and manage a set of human capital metrics that align with your organization’s unique objectives. Partner with accountants and advisors to build a comprehensive framework for metrics reporting.

2. Be intentional about the culture you’d like to create.

Can you answer the questions, “Why does my organization exist? Why do we get up every morning?  What do I want our work environment to feel like?”

3. Be clear and communicate.

Set clear expectations and measures of success and tie them to each employee’s performance objectives.  Frequently remind everyone of what you expect of them.

4. Foster employee/employer relationships.

Develop strong relationships with your employees. Ask about what interests and inspires them. Know when they do their best work, and where they are interested in taking their careers.

5. Build trust and be transparent.

Step into difficult conversations, be honest and forthright with each other, hold each other accountable, and invite feedback so you can both grow.

6. Invest in your people.

Find ways to build their confidence and give them the tools to learn skills for the next evolution of your business and their careers.

7. Create a Succession Plan.

A succession plan helps with a smoother transition when employees at all levels resign or leave the company for any reason. Identify and develop future leaders at your company to prepare for all contingencies. A succession planning process can also help you to identify gaps and weaknesses within the company, so you know where to focus your future recruitment efforts.

No matter what your balance sheet says, continued investment in your employees will always pay off. Engaged, happy, loyal employees do better work. It’s as simple as that.

Cyber attack hits U.S. newspaper distribution

(Reuters) – A cyber attack caused major printing and delivery disruptions on Saturday at the Los Angeles Times and other major U.S. newspapers, including ones owned by Tribune Publishing Co (TPCO.O) such as the Chicago Tribune and Baltimore Sun.

A hooded man holds a laptop computer as cyber code is projected on him in this illustration picture taken on May 13, 2017. REUTERS/Kacper Pempel/Illustration

The cyber attack appeared to originate outside the United States, the Los Angeles Times reported, citing a source with knowledge of the situation.

The attack led to distribution delays in the Saturday edition of The Times, Tribune, Sun and other newspapers that share a production platform in Los Angeles, the Los Angeles Times reported.

Tribune Publishing, whose newspapers also include the New York Daily News and Orlando Sentinel, said it first detected the malware on Friday.

The West Coast editions of the Wall Street Journal and New York Times were hit as they are also printed on the shared production platform, the Los Angeles Times said.

Tribune Publishing spokeswoman Marisa Kollias said the virus hurt back-office systems used to publish and produce “newspapers across our properties.” 

“There is no evidence that customer credit card information or personally identifiable information has been compromised,” Kollias said in a statement

The Wall Street Journal and New York Times did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Most San Diego Union-Tribune subscribers were without a newspaper on Saturday as the virus infected the company’s business systems and hobbled its ability to publish, the paper’s editor and publisher Jeff Light wrote on its website.

A spokeswoman for the Department of Homeland Security said it was studying the situation.

“We are aware of reports of a potential cyber incident affecting several news outlets, and are working with our government and industry partners to better understand the situation,” said DHS spokeswoman Katie Waldman in a statement.

Representatives of the Federal Bureau of Investigation were not immediately available for comment.

Reporting By Jim Finkle; Additional reporting by Andrew Hay; Editing by David Gregorio

The 10 Most Googled People of 2018 (Who'd You Look Up?)

There’s perhaps no better log of what’s on your mind than your browser search history. (Who hasn’t deleted their search history on a shared computer?)

It stands to reason, then, that getting a window into our collective psyche is as simple as perusing Google’s list of most-searched terms of the year. Google recently released The Year In Search–a comprehensive breakdown of everything we searched for this year, organized by category.

So what was on our minds in 2018? When it comes to people, these individuals were. Don’t worry–if you don’t know one … I Googled it for you:

10. Cardi B

American rapper whose standout hits include Bodak Yellow and this year’s breakout, I Like It, which currently has 674M streams on Spotify and counting. 

9. Stormy Daniels

Her legal name is Stephanie Clifford, and she is an American stripper, porn star, and director who got into a legal battle with Trump and his lawyer Michael Cohen this year. Trump and company paid Daniels $130,000 to stay quiet about an affair she says had with Trump in 2006.

8. Hailey Baldwin

Daughter of Stephen Baldwin, she’s a model and TV personality who married Justin Bieber this year. While legally married, the couple has yet to stage a large-scale wedding with family and friends.

7. Brett Kavanaugh

A polarizing figure, Kavanaugh was appointed to the Supreme Court this year following what some described as an excruciating and exhausting battle for confirmation. Multiple allegations of sexual misconduct were levied against him. 

6. Jair Bolsonaro

Bolsonaro was elected president of Brazil in October, 2018. A very right-wing figure, many have compared him to Trump.

5. Khloé Kardashian

Younger sister of Kim Kardashian, Khloe nearly broke the internet this year when she had her baby girl, True Thompson, in April 2018.

4. Logan Paul

On December 31, 2017, controversial vlogger Paul uploaded a YouTube video showing the corpse of a suicide victim. The video gained 6.3M views within 24 hours, sparked outrage on many fronts, and almost cost Paul his YouTube channel. Paul has since been reinstated on the platform and contributed $1M to suicide prevention agencies.

3. Sylvester Stallone

Stallone did not die this past year, but a lot of people feared otherwise. In February, popular searches included “Sylvester Stallone dead 2018” and “Did sylvester stallone die.” The countries where the hoax was passed around the most? South Africa, Ghana, and Bolivia (the U.S. came in 22nd on the list of Stallone searches).

2. Demi Lovato

A Grammy-nominated musical artist, Lovato was hospitalized this year for a suspected overdose. “I have always been transparent about my journey with addiction,” Lovato said on social media. “What I’ve learned is that this illness is not something that disappears or fades with time. It is something I must continue to overcome and have not done yet. I will keep fighting.”

1. Meghan Markle

Markle married Prince Harry in a royal wedding this year, the guest list of which included Serena Williams, George Clooney, Oprah, Elton John, and the Spice Girls.

General Electric: My Best Stock Pick For 2019

General Electric (GE) has been the worst performer in my portfolio this year, by far. Nonetheless, I am optimistic that 2019 will be a much better year for the industrial company, and I believe investor pessimism with respect to GE has seen its low in 2018. General Electric is my top rebound bet for 2019 that could produce high risk-adjusted returns for investors. Though GE could test its most recent lows, the risk/reward remains very attractive as long as General Electric is out-of-favor.

A Year In Review

It was a devastating year for General Electric: The company continuously disappointed investors throughout 2018 with poor earnings, the announcement of an SEC investigation with respect to the company’s insurance reserves, a scrapped dividend, and the appointment of yet another Chief Executive Officer. To top things off, General Electric has so far failed to restructure its ailing power business which is in a prolonged slump. Adding insult to injury, General Electric’s stock got booted from the Dow Jones Industrial Average earlier this year, too.

On the back of such developments, General Electric’s share price slumped 58.3 percent this year, making it the worst performing investment for a lot of investors.

Testing New Lows?

Market volatility roared back in the fourth quarter with a vengeance. On the back of deteriorating investor appetite and decreasing investor confidence in the U.S. economy, stocks have corrected sharply to the downside since October. General Electric’s shares, for instance, dropped to a devastating 52-week and multi-year low @$6.66. Two years ago, GE traded at ~$30.

Though GE is now longer oversold, and managed to bounce back up to $8 in December, shares could very well test this year’s lows in case investor sentiment takes another hit. Should GE fall through its latest lows, this would point to more downside for GE’s stock over the short haul.

Source: StockCharts

GE In 2019

General Electric will focus on three major businesses going forward: Aviation, Power and Renewables, which will make up GE’s new core business.

The power business, which brought in ~$35 billion in revenues in 2017, will be the center of investors’ attention in 2019. GE took a $22 billion impairment charge in its power division in the third quarter of 2018, and investors will closely monitor management’s progress with respect to the restructuring. Should GE’s new management be able to turn things around in light of a weak gas turbine market (and in the absence of a U.S. recession), investor sentiment could gradually recover and improve prospects for share price appreciation.

In any case, General Electric will not be the same company in the future that it is now. General Electric will execute on its strategic actions plan in 2019 that calls for a healthcare spinoff and the divestiture of its stake in Baker Hughes, an oil field services company General Electric bought in 2016.

Here’s GE strategic action plan:

Source: General Electric

There are also more asset sales in the cards for 2019. General Electric has loosely guided for $20 billion in asset sales, and the company could step its divestiture game up next year in order to shed underperforming businesses and raise cash. Together with the dividend, General Electric could potentially invest billions of dollars in new growth initiatives in sectors such as aviation, digital and renewable technologies. In 2018, for instance, General Electric sold its rail business to Wabtec in a $11.1 billion deal and agreed to sell its Distributed Power Business to private equity company Advent International for $3.25 billion.

Valuation

General Electric is dirt cheap, and has a very attractive risk/reward, in my opinion. Though downside risks exist with respect to both the U.S. economy and General Electric’s ability to restructure its power business, GE’s shares are priced for disaster, selling for less than nine times next year’s estimated earnings.

Chart

GE PE Ratio (Forward 1y) data by YCharts

General Electric has widely underperformed its peers in the sector, Honeywell International (HON) and 3M Company (MMM), especially since October.

Here’s how GE compares against its industrial peers in the sector in terms of forward P/E-ratio. GE’s earnings multiple today is about half the earnings multiple of its closest peers.

Chart

GE PE Ratio (Forward 1y) data by YCharts

Risk Factors Investors Need To Consider

There are three major risk factors that could affect the investment thesis negatively:

1. General Electric fails to turn around its power division, and, as a result, cash flow and margin problems continue to weigh on GE’s financial performance and investor sentiment in 2019;

2. A U.S. recession (should it manifest itself) could hit GE’s cyclical industrial businesses, such as aviation and oil & gas, hard;

3. Should GE’s stock price fall below the most recent low at $6.66, more downside looms over the short haul.

Your Takeaway

General Electric is taking massive action right now, and there are reasons to be optimistic and give management time to execute on its turnaround plan. Management is super focused on driving this restructuring home, and will leave no stone unturned to show improved capital efficiency going forward.

Honestly, I can’t see how things could get much worse from here, and GE’s shares are already priced for disaster. So much bad news is already baked into General Electric’s valuation that the industrial company can almost only surprise to the upside in 2019.

GE remains widely out-of-favor, which points to huge recovery potential next year as investor sentiment could gradually shift if GE’s financial performance improves. I am prepared to add to my long position if GE drops below the latest low at $6.66. GE is my top stock pick for 2019.

Disclosure: I am/we are long GE. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Exclusive: White House mulls new year executive order to bar Huawei, ZTE purchases

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President Donald Trump is considering an executive order in the new year to declare a national emergency that would bar U.S. companies from using telecommunications equipment made by China’s Huawei and ZTE, three sources familiar with the situation told Reuters.

FILE PHOTO: A man walks past a sign board of Huawei at CES (Consumer Electronics Show) Asia 2018 in Shanghai, China June 14, 2018. REUTERS/Aly Song

It would be the latest step by the Trump administration to cut Huawei Technologies Cos Ltd [HWT.UL] and ZTE Corp, two of China’s biggest network equipment companies, out of the U.S. market. The United States alleges that the two companies work at the behest of the Chinese government and that their equipment could be used to spy on Americans.

The executive order, which has been under consideration for more than eight months, could be issued as early as January and would direct the Commerce Department to block U.S. companies from buying equipment from foreign telecommunications makers that pose significant national security risks, sources from the telecoms industry and the administration said.

While the order is unlikely to name Huawei or ZTE, a source said it is expected that Commerce officials would interpret it as authorization to limit the spread of equipment made by the two companies. The sources said the text for the order has not been finalized.

The executive order would invoke the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a law that gives the president the authority to regulate commerce in response to a national emergency that threatens the United States.

The issue has new urgency as U.S. wireless carriers look for partners as they prepare to adopt next generation 5G wireless networks.

The order follows the passage of a defense policy bill in August that barred the U.S. government itself from using Huawei and ZTE equipment.

Huawei and ZTE did not return requests for comment. Both in the past have denied allegations their products are used to spy. The White House also did not return a request for comment.

The Wall Street Journal first reported in early May that the order was under consideration, but it was never issued.

HIT TO RURAL NETWORKS

Rural operators in the United States are among the biggest customers of Huawei and ZTE, and fear the executive order would also require them to rip out existing Chinese-made equipment without compensation. Industry officials are divided on whether the administration could legally compel operators to do that.

While the big U.S. wireless companies have cut ties with Huawei in particular, small rural carriers have relied on Huawei and ZTE switches and other equipment because they tend to be less expensive.

The company is so central to small carriers that William Levy, vice president for sales of Huawei Tech USA, is on the board of directors of the Rural Wireless Association.

The RWA represents carriers with fewer than 100,000 subscribers. It estimates that 25 percent of its members had Huawei or ZTE equipment in their networks, it said in a filing to the Federal Communications Commission earlier this month.

The RWA is concerned that an executive order could force its members to remove ZTE and Huawei equipment and also bar future purchases, said Caressa Bennet, RWA general counsel.

It would cost $800 million to $1 billion for all RWA members to replace their Huawei and ZTE equipment, Bennet said.

Separately, the FCC in April granted initial approval to a regulation that bars giving federal funding to help pay for telecommunication infrastructure to companies that purchase equipment from firms deemed threats to U.S. national security, which analysts have said is aimed at Huawei and ZTE.

The FCC is also considering whether to require carriers to remove and replace equipment from firms deemed a national security risk.

FILE PHOTO – The logo of China’s ZTE Corp is seen on the building of ZTE Beijing research and development center in Beijing, China June 13, 2018. REUTERS/Jason Lee

In March, FCC Chairman Ajit Pai said “hidden ‘back doors’ to our networks in routers, switches — and virtually any other type of telecommunications equipment – can provide an avenue for hostile governments to inject viruses, launch denial-of-service attacks, steal data, and more.”

In the December filing, Pine Belt Communications in Alabama estimated it would cost $7 million to $13 million to replace its Chinese-made equipment, while Sagebrush in Montana said replacement would cost $57 million and take two years.

Sagebrush has noted that Huawei products are significantly cheaper. When looking for bids in 2010 for its network, it found the cost of Ericsson equipment to be nearly four times the cost of Huawei.

Reporting by Diane Bartz and David Shepardson; Editing by Chris Sanders and Leslie Adler

It's Now Or Never For The Bulls

In April of this year, I wrote an article discussing the 10 reasons the bull market had ended.

“The backdrop of the market currently is vastly different than it was during the ‘taper tantrum’ in 2015-2016, or during the corrections following the end of QE1 and QE2. In those previous cases, the Federal Reserve was directly injecting liquidity and managing expectations of long-term accommodative support. Valuations had been through a fairly significant reversion, and expectations had been extinguished. None of that support exists currently.”

It mostly fell on “deaf ears” as the market rallied back to highs. But the “worries” of the market have continued to mount despite the speculative rally. As Barbara Kollmeyer penned yesterday morning:

“The markets have enough to worry about these days, right? With major U.S. indexes in or near bear territory, a government shutdown underway and the White House falling over itself to assure us no one is firing Fed Chief Powell, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin gobsmacked market participants by revealing that he made a weekend call from a beach in Mexico to the country’s six biggest banks, presumably to assure Wall Street that there’s ample liquidity sloshing around in the financial system.”

I can only presume the phone call between President Trump and Steve Mnuchin went something like this:

Trump: Hey, Steve. This market is bad. I mean it’s really bad… really bad. You need to do something to make it go up. I mean really go up.

Mnuchin: No problem. I’ll just call my buddies and tell them they need to start buying. You know, we can always hit up the “Plunge Protection Team” if we need too.

Trump: The what? Oh yeah… I’ve heard of those guys. Yeah, you do that. We need this market to go up really big. I mean really big. I got a whole big pile of s*** going on here, my ratings are down, and I need the market to go up. I mean go up a lot. You make that happen, okay. Cuz that a**hole Powell ain’t helpin’ me one bit.

Mnuchin: Check… I’m on it.

Of course, the only real reason that you would call the 6 major banks, and meet with the “Plunge Protection Team,” would be in the event there was a real concern about the financial stability of the markets. It didn’t take long for the markets to figure out there may be a real liquidity problem brewing out there (aka Deutsche Bank) and as Mark Decambre penned Monday afternoon:

“The S&P 500 index fell by 2.7% Monday, marking the first session before Christmas that the broad-market benchmark has booked a loss of 1% or greater – ever.”

That’s the bad news.

My Christmas Wish

If we take a look back at the markets over the last 20 years, we find that our weekly composite technical gauge has only reached this level of an oversold condition only a few times during the time frame studied. Such oversold conditions have always resulted in at least a corrective bounce even within the context of a larger mean-reverting process.

What this oversold condition implies is that “selling” may have temporarily exhausted itself. Like a raging fire, at some point the “fuel” is consumed and it burns itself out. In the market, it is much the same.

You have always heard that “for every buyer, there is a seller.”

While this is a true statement, it is incomplete.

The real issue is that while there is indeed a “buyer for every seller,” the question is “at what price?”

In bull markets, prices rise until “buyers” are unwilling to pay a higher price for assets. Likewise, in a bear market, prices will decline until “sellers” are no longer willing to sell at a lower price. It is always a question of price, otherwise, the market would be a flat line.

Again, what the weekly composite indicator suggests is that “sellers” have likely exhausted themselves to the point that “buyers” are likely starting to outnumber “sellers” to the point that prices will rise, at least temporarily.

This also highlights the importance of long-term moving averages. Again, as noted above, given that prices rise and fall due to participant demand, long-term moving averages provide a good picture of where demand is likely to be found. When prices deviate too far above, or below, those long-term averages, prices have a history of reverting back to, or beyond, that mean.

Currently, the market has started a mean reversion process back to the 200-week (4-year) moving average. As you will notice, with only a couple of exceptions, the 200-week moving average has acted as a long-term support line for the market. When the market has previously confirmed a break below the long-term average, more protracted mean-reverting events were already in process.

Currently, the bulls remain in charge for the moment with the market sitting just a few points above the long-term average. A weekly close below 2,346 on the S&P 500 would suggest a deeper decline is in process.

The same goes for the 60-month (5-year) moving average. With the market currently sitting just above the long-term trend support line, the “bull market” remains intact for now.

Again, a monthly close below 2,251 would suggest a more protracted “bear” market is underway.

How Much Of A Bounce Are We Talking About

Looking at a chart of weekly closes, the most likely oversold retracement rally would push stocks back toward the previous 2018 closing lows of 2,620-2,650.

On a monthly closing basis, however, that rally could extend as high as 2,700.

From yesterday’s closing levels, that is a 12.7% to 14.8% rally.

A rally of this magnitude will get the mainstream media very convinced the “bear market” is now over.

It likely won’t be.

The one thing about long-term trending bull markets is that they cover up investment mistakes. Overpaying for value, taking on too much risk, leverage, etc., are all things that investors inherently know will have negative outcomes. However, during a bull market, those mistakes are “forgiven” as prices inherently rise. The longer they rise, the more mistakes that investors tend to make as they become assured they are “smarter than the market.”

Eventually, a bear market reveals those mistakes in the most brutal of fashions.

It is often said the religion is found in “foxholes.” It is also found in bear markets where investors begin to “pray” for relief.

Very likely, there are many investors who have learned of the mistakes they have made over the past several years. Therefore, any rally in the market over the next few weeks to a couple of months will likely be met with selling as investors look for an exit.

Here is the other problem, there is currently no supportive backdrop for stocks on the horizon:

  • Earnings estimates for 2019 are still way too elevated.
  • Stock market targets for 2019 are also too high.
  • The Federal Reserve is still targeting higher rates and continued balance sheet reductions.
  • Trade wars are set to continue
  • The effect of the tax cut legislation will disappear and year-over-year comparisons revert back to normalized growth rates.
  • Economic growth is set to slow markedly next year.
  • Chinese economic growth will likely weaken further
  • European growth, already weak, will likely struggle as well.
  • Valuations remain expensive
  • The collapse in oil prices will weigh on inflation targets and economic activity (CapEx)

You get the idea.

There are a lot of things that have to go “right” to get the “bull market” back on track. But there is a whole lot more which is currently going wrong.

As I wrote in “The Exit Problem” last December:

“My job is to participate in the markets while keeping a measured approach to capital preservation. Since it is considered ‘bearish’ to point out the potential ‘risks’ which could lead to rapid capital destruction; then I guess you can call me a ‘bear.’

Just make sure you understand I am still in ‘theater,’ I am just moving much closer to the ‘exit.'”

After having sold a big chunk of our equity holdings throughout the year, and having been a steady buyer of bonds (despite consistent calls for higher rates), my “Christmas Wish” is for one last oversold rally to “sell” into.

The most likely outcome for 2019 is higher volatility, lower returns, and a still greatly under-appreciated risk to capital.

But, for the bulls, it’s now or never to make a final stand.

Just remember, getting back to even is not the same as growing wealth.

This Brilliant Holiday Gift Guide Shows Us How Advertising Should Be Done

Every year, my inbox fills up with holiday gift guides, predicted buying trends, and everyone’s list of the “best of the best” stocking stuffers. I even follow suit at times, and create my own gift guides to help consumers navigate the ever-changing tech options… But this year, if there was an award for holiday gift guides, Digital Trends would be winning big, because their genius holiday campaign has everything and then some.

Expertly Targeted Content

The guide Digital Trends put out depicts products featured and told as stories in miniature scenes, thanks to a partnership with animation studio HouseSpecial. The stories and scenes offer gift ideas for the tech savvy, but in several different categories, like audiophile and foodie. Each scene holds tremendous attention to detail, and draws in the attention of the viewer for several different reasons. Not only are the scenes visually appealing, they are perfectly targeted, and feature products without the products being the actual focus of the scene.

Size Matters

MediaPost pointed out that the figures for the guide were designed in H0 scale. This is the traditional scale for model railroads (Hello Christmas trains and villages!), and this time of year, that is a genius touch, that proves 1) size matters, and 2) attention to detail on every level feels luxurious because we rarely see or experience that in advertising.

What + How + Where

It’s not only WHAT they are saying about the product(s) but HOW they are saying it that has determined the efficacy of their guide. This guide is intentional. It’s clear that the creators went in with a strategy, with intentions, and with clearly defined tangibles as outcomes. This is important because it’s so much easier to get it right when you have the what, how, who, and where answered before you begin.

This Guide Is So “Instagram-able”

This unique “Instagram-able” product advertising campaign is unique and perfectly targeted in the following ways:

  1. It’s visually impactful and easily shared. The scenes are done so well, they have feelings to them of nostalgia and something unique, and they are easily shareable, which allows consumers to easily create buzz for them.

  2. They are tapping into the nod to collectable holiday villages and model railroads, hitting right to the type of consumers they want to attract.

  3. They feature products without being product shots and really separate out and make products that are me-too, and available anywhere, special enough to be clicked and bought to reward the creativity. Point blank: the guide makes people want to buy items they may have scrolled past on Amazon more than once, because of the emotion and connection they feel to the scenes and campaign.

With more than 30 million unique monthly visitors, I’m happy to take notes from Digital Trends. Alana Wolfman, their director of production, who shared their strategy of using SEO search queries to stay in front of exactly what users are searching for during the holiday season. In addition to that, the scenes themselves were created by a team that has worked on campaigns for major players like Chipotle, Planters, noosa, and Dish Network.

Rising Above the Noise

The reason I really love this campaign, other than the adorable perfectly executed miniature displays, besides the fact that it is everything an advertising campaign should be in its ability to be shared and to capture attention, aside from it’s near perfect timing and magnificent attention to detail… is how the creators went outside of the box, to create something unique. That might not sound like much, but to be unique with intention, in a place where everyone is trying everything to be relevant, is a big deal.

The thought put into creation speaks for itself, and should push your goals for future product advertising. Don’t be afraid to be unique, to go big (or small!), and to pay so much attention to the details that your attention feels like luxury to the consumers experiencing your campaign.

3 Coaching Strategies To Help Your Employees Overcome Uncertainty

To keep a business running smoothly, managers need to train their employees on how to perform pre-prescribed duties on a consistent basis. It’s also every leader’s responsibility to hold their team accountable to a high standard of quality and to work with them on streamlining their processes to increase efficiency.

A big challenge, however, is in preparing teams to excel when circumstances take an unexpected turn. Uncertainty is a given in business interactions, whether with clients, partners or colleagues, and leaders must take steps to coach their employees on best practices for handling uncommon situations well.

At my company Amerisleep, we encourage our staff to approach unfamiliar problems with an inquisitive mind. Rather than get flustered by the introduction of new variables, our team members are expected to ask questions to identify the key issue, diagnose the cause, and research the best solution.

Below are three things other leaders can do to ensure their team is comfortable dealing with uncertainty — and that they are capable of thriving too.

1. Create contingency plans teams can use to guide next steps.

When you anticipate the possibility of alternative scenarios, you can pre-plan different ways to respond.

In sales, for instance, one of the most dependable strategies is creating a script that features curated response patterns a salesperson can use to guide conversations based on each client’s reaction. This reduces the negative impact of resistance and rejections because it gives the salesperson a model for how they can best overcome the situation.

When negotiating with vendors, too, you may encounter obstacles that could derail the deal. To prepare our managers for those situations, we walk them through the most common sticking points such as price and timeline. If the costs are too high, we seek ways to cut back on expected deliverables to decrease the overall scope and rework the engagement so that it fits our budget. If the delivery schedule is longer than expected, we dissect the process to discover which steps we can expedite.

As a regular part of the training process, department leaders should provide their team members with guidance for how they should process uncertainty and proceed with a solutions-based approach.

2. Train staff to identify elements under their control and act accordingly.

The unknown can be quite jarring for some people. It often causes those unprepared to abandon all hope of influencing the situation and to accept whatever happens. But participants always have some measure of control, even when the expected outcomes seem less likely to manifest.

Teach your employees to look for elements they can leverage — such as historical data, rapport with other team members or participants, and available tools and technology — to allow them to reestablish their composure. Otherwise, they may view new variables as an obstacle instead of an opportunity. This will also help them become more self-reliant, empowering them to independently push more projects through to completion.

Our employees at Amerisleep take this to heart. When website outages occur, rather than panic, our development team follows a pre-defined process for troubleshooting and resolving the issue. Additionally, they take this opportunity to identify ways to further strengthen the reliability of our online experience, mitigating the risk of future failures. Although it’s impossible for us to predict when our site may experience a bit of downtime, what’s certain is the fact that our engineers are both skilled and process-oriented enough to find the perfect solution in a timely manner.

3. Promote strong analytical and critical thinking skills.

When unforeseen circumstances disrupt a plan, it’s common for people to immediately begin thinking about the ramifications of the uncertainty on their future. In these instances, they’re focusing too heavily on the consequences when they should exert more energy finding meaningful solutions.

Those who excel at dealing with the unknown stay in the moment and follow a successful roadmap: prepare as much as possible beforehand; anticipate the unexpected; look for ways to make a difference; and act decisively.

By taking a structured and strategic approach to addressing unfamiliar scenarios, you maintain your ability to think through the problem rationally rather than reacting emotionally.